IF an election were held today, the Conservatives would unseat the Liberals as government with a 169-seat minority. The Liberals would win 130 seats, the NDP 26, with 12 for the Bloc Quebécois, and 1 for the Green Party, according to a poll.

In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll amongst 1,350 Canadian voters, amongst those decided and leaning, if an election were held today, almost four in 10 (39%) say they would support the Conservatives, with more than a third (35%) saying they would support the Liberals.

The NDP is supported by almost one sixth (15%), followed by the Bloc Quebécois (5%), and the Green Party (4%), with other parties securing (1%).

Respondents most likely to say they support the Conservatives include those aged 35-44 (50%), males (48%), the most wealthy (53%), living in Alberta (69%), with some college/university (42%) or a college/university degree (42%).

Respondents most likely to say they support the Liberals include those aged 55-64 (42%), females (39%), earning $20,000-$40,000 (39%), living in the Atlantic (49%), the least educated (37%), and those with a post-graduate degree (38%).

Respondents most likely to say they support the NDP include those aged 34 or younger (23%) and the least wealthy (28%).

Trudeau’s approval down, but Scheer still an unknown

More than four in 10 (43%) say they approve of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s performance, which is down six points since August (August 24: 49%). Almost half (47%) say they disapprove of his performance, up five points in the same time period (August 24: 42%). His net favourable score drops to -4 from +7 in August, an 11-point swing (August 24: +7). Only a small proportion of voters (11%) say they do not know.

Conservative Party Leader Andrew Scheer sees approval amongst one quarter (26%) of voters and disapproval of almost a third (30%). His net favourable score is -1. Andrew Scheer has failed to make an impression on the plurality, however, with almost half (44%) saying they do not know whether they approve or disapprove.

NDP Leader Tom Mulcair sees approval of more than a third (37%) and his disapproval is just under 3 in 10 (29%), though over a third (34%) say they do not know about his performance. His net favourable score is +9.

Trudeau still seen by plurality as the best PM

Despite the dip in his popularity overall, more than a third (34%) see Trudeau as the best candidate for Prime Minister.

Scheer is seen by 2 in 10 (20%) as the best PM.

Mulcair is favoured by just over 1 in 10 (12%).

“Trudeau enters the fall legislative session with his popularity slipping. The primary beneficiary of Trudeau’s decline is Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “Scheer is still a significantly unknown quantity to the plurality of voters, however, and must further differentiate himself from Trudeau to solidify his recent gains.”