20% support NDP – an increase of 7 points since October 8
Singh tied with Scheer in second place for best PM
IN a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll among 1,028 Canadian voters, among those decided and leaning, just under a third (29%) say they would support the Conservatives if the election were held today, while a third (30%) say they support the Liberals.
One-fifth (20%) say they support the NDP, an increase of 7 points since October 8 (October 8: 13%).
1 in 10 (8%) say they would support the Greens, but that’s down 4 points since October 8 (October 8: 12%)
About 1 in 10 (7%) say they would support the Bloc Quebecois, while a few would support the People’s Party of Canada (4%) or another party (2%).
If these results were projected into seats, we expect a minority parliament, with the Liberals winning 133 seats and the Conservatives winning 121.
The NDP would win 46 (up 17 from October 8: 29), the BQ would win 37, and the Green would win 1, (down from 4 – October 8).
“Jagmeet Singh’s popularity is surging and the NDP is finally benefitting from it,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “With four days to go before Canadians cast their ballots the NDP are peaking at the right time. If these numbers hold through voting day, Singh’s coalition gambit may prove prescient; more electoral reality than campaign spin.”
* Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau sees approval from 4 in 10 (39%), and disapproval from half (53%). 1 in 10 (8%) say they don’t know.
Trudeau’s net favourable score (approve-disapprove) is -14.
* Conservative Party Andrew Scheer sees approval from a quarter (27%) and disapproval from more than half (57%). One-sixth (15%) say they don’t know.
Scheer’s net favourable score (approve-disapprove) is -30.
* Half (52%) say they approve of NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, up 17 points since October 2 (October 2: 35%). A quarter (27%) say they disapprove of Singh, down 7 points in the same period (October 2: 34%). One-fifth (21%) say they don’t know.
Singh’s net favourable score (approve-disapprove) is +25, an increase of 24 points since October 2 (October 2: +1)
* More than 4 in 10 (46%) say they approve of Green Party Elizabeth May, up 7 points since October 2 (October 2: 39%), while a third (31%) say they disapprove.
A quarter (24%) say they don’t know.
May’s net favourable score (approve-disapprove) is +15.
Trudeau leads on best PM, but Singh tied with Scheer for second
A quarter (28%) say Trudeau would make the best Prime Minister.
A similar proportion say (24%) say that Scheer would, though that is down 5 points since October 8 (October 8: 29%).
Singh is also seen as best PM by a quarter (24%), which is an increase of 5 points since October 8 (October 8: 19%), and an increase of 11 points since October 3 (October 2: 13%).
Elizabeth May is seen as best PM by 1 in 10 (8%).
One-fifth (16%) say they don’t know who would make the best PM.
Canadians divided on whether Canada is better or worse
Half say Canada is doing better than four years ago, with one-fifth (19%) saying it’s much better.
Half say it’s doing worse, with a third (30%) saying it’s doing much worse.