IN a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll among a random sample of 1,397 Canadian voters, two thirds have seen the Conservative Party TV ad in which a group of people discuss Justin Trudeau’s resumé (67%), although this increases to close to 8-in-10 Anglophones (78%).
Recall of this ad is especially high in Atlantic Canada (85%) and in Alberta (83%). New Democrats are slightly less likely to remember the ad (66%) than are Conservatives (73%) or Liberals (75%).
Two thirds of those who saw the ad, the plurality, say it will make them more likely to vote Liberal (32%), while fewer than a quarter say it will make them vote Conservative (24%) or NDP (23%). Just fewer than one fifth say the ad will have no effect on their vote (17%) and this is an unusually small proportion for this position.
Among Conservatives, just 6-in-10 say the ad will make them more likely to vote their party (59%), but many say the ad will have no influence (26%).
Among New Democrats, just more than half say the ad will reinforce their partisan vote (55%), but more than one fifth say it is actually more likely to make them vote Liberal (21%).
Among Liberals, there is wide agreement the ad will prompt them to vote Liberal (80%). Very few Liberals or New Democrats think the ad will be effective at swinging Conservative votes (5% and 6%, respectively).
Split opinion on message of ad
Voters are equally likely to say they agree (45%) or disagree (46%) with the ad’s tagline “Justin Trudeau. He’s just not ready”. While almost all Conservatives agree (88%), far fewer New Democrats (32%) or Liberals (13%) do. Liberals, of course, are especially likely to disagree their leader is not ready (81%), but so are more than half of New Democrats (57%).
One third think this ad is effective
Just more than one third of voters think the “Resumé” ad is effective at persuading Canadians to vote Conservative (36%), and just more than a tenth say it is “very effective” (13%). Conservatives think it particularly effective (70% overall, 30% very effective), while Liberals (21%) and New Democrats (20%) do not.
“It isn’t surprising that Conservatives think this commercial, which is in maximum rotation on Canadian airwaves, will be an effective tool to shake loose some uncommitted Liberals and New Democrats. It seems to have the opposite effect, though, and it actually may be attracting some NDP sympathizers to the Liberal Party?” said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.