IN a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll among 1,370 Canadian voters, more than a third (36%) will vote Liberal if a federal election were held today, while just one third would vote Conservative (32%).
One fifth would vote for the NDP (21%), but few would vote Green (6%), Bloc Quebecois (4%) or for any other party (1%).
This represents a slight decline for the Liberals since last month (February 11 – 39%) and stasis for the Conservatives (February – 32%).
In Quebec, the Liberals lead at one third of the vote (33%) to one quarter for the NDP (24%) and one fifth for the Conservatives (20%). Fewer than one fifth would vote Bloc (16%).
In vote rich Ontario, where this year’s election will be won or lost, Liberals (38%) and Conservatives (37%) are tied, with a fifth of the vote going to the New Democrats (19%).
In Alberta, the Conservatives take more than half the vote (51%), but the Liberals are not shut out (29%).
In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals are absolutely dominant (63%).
In BC, the Liberals and NDP are tied for second place (29% each) behind the Conservatives (35%).
If these results are projected up to a 338 seat House of Commons, the Liberals would capture a minority of 138 seats (32 fewer than required for a majority) to 130 for the Conservatives, a very high 65 for the NDP , 4 for the Bloc Quebecois and 1 Green Party seat.
This stands in contrast to last month when the Liberals were projected to take a majority of 194 seats to 112 for the Conservatives. The NDP were projected to take just 30 seats last month.