All that shine around federal Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau seems to be wearing off as an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between November 10 and December 1 on behalf of Global News shows.
The poll of 8,268 Canadians (6,502 decided voters) shows that if an election had been held last week, the Liberals would have received 34% of the decided vote (down 4 points since September), while the Conservative Party under Prime Minister Stephen Harper would have got 33% of the vote (up 2 points). The Liberals’ seven-point lead prior to the fall session of Parliament was just a one-point lead – in other words, a statistical tie.
The NDP under Thomas Mulcair would have received 24% of the vote (up 1 point). Fifteen percent of Canadians (15%) remained undecided.
The large sample size of the poll allowed for an examination of the vote within each of the provinces with greater statistical accuracy than a typical national poll of 1,000 respondents.
In BRITISH COLUMBIA (N=990), a three-way race showed the Conservatives (33%), NDP (30%) and Liberals (28%) all within striking distance.
TAKE a look at the figures for the other parts of the country (unweighted sample sizes for each subset of decided voters shown in brackets):
* In Ontario (N=2982), the Conservatives (37%) and Liberals (37%) were in a dead heat, with the NDP (22%) and other parties (4%) further behind.
Within the 416 region of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) (N=571), specifically, the Liberals (46%) are far in front of the NDP (26%) and Conservatives (25%) who are jockeying for a distant second.
In the surrounding 905 region of the GTA (N=641), where past elections have been won and lost, the Conservatives (41%) hold a slight advantage over the Liberals (37%), while the NDP (20%) and other parties (2%) appear outside contention.
* In Quebec (N=2150), the Liberals (32%) have a slight lead over the NDP (29%), while the Bloc (21%) and Conservatives (15%) are well behind.
* In Alberta (N=746), the Conservatives (58%), as expected, have a solid lead over the Liberals (24%) and NDP (14%).
* In Saskatchewan (N=266), the Conservatives (36%) hold a slim lead over the Liberals (32%), with the NDP behind (26%).
* In Manitoba (N=426), the Conservatives (44%) enjoy a double-digit lead over the Liberals (33%), with the NDP (20%) far behind.
* In Nova Scotia (N=331), a majority (56%) of decided voters would support the Liberals, who have a daunting lead over the Conservatives (24%), NDP (18%), and other (1%) parties.
* In New Brunswick (N=237), the Liberals (46%) are way out in front of the Tories (29%), NDP (19%), and other (5%) parties.
* In Newfoundland and Labrador (N=99, *small sample size), decided voters are three times as likely to support the Liberals (59%) than the Conservatives (20%) or NDP (19%), while handfuls would support other (3%) parties.
* In Prince Edward Island (N=41, *very small sample size), the Liberals (40%) and Conservatives (38%) sit neck-and-neck, ahead of the NDP (22%).