Conservatives lead, but the gap is narrowing; Greens hit double digits: Forum Poll

IN a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll among 1,633 Canadian voters from May 21 to June 2, amongst those decided and leaning, a third (34%) say they would support the Conservatives if an election were held today.
Three in 10 (30%) say they would support the Liberals, and about one-sixth say they would support the NDP (13%) or Greens (13%).
About 1 in 20 (6%) say they would support the Bloc Quebecois, while a similar proportion would support the People’s Party of Canada (4%). Few (1%) are supporting another party.
While support for most of the parties is stable, the Greens have increased their support by four points since April (April 9: 9%).
If these results were projected into seats, Forum Poll expects a Conservative minority government of 151 seats, with the Liberals securing 134.
The NDP would win 27, and the BQ would win 23.

Trudeau sees approval from a third, disapproval from more than half
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau sees approval from a third (34%) and disapproval from more than half (56%), with about 1 in 10 (10%) saying they don’t know. His net favourable score is -22 (approve-disapprove).

Scheer sees disapproval from almost half
A third (33%) say they approve of Conservative Party Leader Andrew Scheer, while almost half (45%) say they disapprove. One-fifth (22%) say they don’t know. Scheer’s net favourable score is -12 (approve-disapprove).

 

Singh’s disapproval is equal to “don’t know”
A quarter (23%) say they approve of NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, while about 4 in 10 (40%) say they disapprove. Fopur in 10 (37%) also say that they don’t know. His net favourable score is -17 (approve-disapprove).

May’s approval the highest
Just over 4 in 10 (44%) say they approve of Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, while a quarter (22%) say they disapprove. A third (33%) say they do not know. Her net favourable score is +22, the only score in the positives (approve-disapprove).

“Support for the federal parties is mostly unchanged, but the landscape has shifted considerably,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “A few percentage points have made a big difference in the projection of the future government. The highlight of this report is the strength of the federal Green party; with a provincial Green Party propping up an NDP government in BC, and other provincial Greens making significant gains in Atlantic Canada, the federal Greens could have a real influence on the 2019 election, if their support continues to rise.”

 

Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 3%, 19 times out of 20, measured as the average deviation across all response categories.

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