Conservative fortunes waning as Liberal fortunes rise in nearly deadlocked race: Ekos Politics

Clear decline of Conservative fortunes in seat-rich Ontario

 

THE political landscape is now clearly shifting in favour of the Liberals and to the detriment of the Conservatives. The Scheer-led Conservatives have seen their 11-point lead from just a month ago shrink to a narrow 2.7-point lead as of June 16.
The results Ekos Politics’ most recent three-day poll (n=1,229) are: 33.6 per cent for the Conservatives, 30.9 per cent for the Liberals, 13.6 per cent for the Greens, and 11.9 per cent for the NDP.

For the purpose of ensuring a more reliable analysis of regional and demographic patterns, Ekos Politics also presents a six-day roll (n=2,491), which shows a four-point lead for the Conservatives. These results, coupled with the three-day roll, suggest that the recent trend of inverse fortunes for the Liberals and Conservatives is continuing.

The most notable feature of the political landscape is the clear decline of Conservative fortunes in seat-rich Ontario and the corresponding rise of the Liberals. In their internal polling, Ekos Politics found that this pattern is clearly linked to declining confidence in Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative government.
The Conservatives continue to enjoy a large advantage with men, while the Liberals have a
modest advantage with women. The Conservatives have a large advantage with working class and non-university educated voters, which is critical to their constituency and different than in 2015. Regionally, the only clear results outside of Ontario are the prairies, which look to be an overwhelming Conservative advantage. British Columbia, Quebec, and the Atlantic look to be a confused and unclear mix of support.
Using their internal seat projections, Ekos Politics has the Liberals holding a razor-thin advantage of 150 seats versus 143 for the Conservatives. The Green Party, which received just three per cent and a single seat in the last election, is now at 14 points and looking at capturing 12 seats should these numbers hold. This number will become particularly interesting if the combined Liberal and Green numbers surpass a majority of the seats. The NDP is struggling at just 14 seats. Any further erosion could move them out of official party status and into rump territory.
It is important to note that seat projections at this stage, while anecdotally interesting, have little value in terms of the October election. The election is still four months away and a great deal can happen in that time.

Bottom line: the October election is going to be an extremely tight contest with no clarity as to who will be the winner. At this stage, the most likely scenario is some form of minority government.

 

This report discusses findings from two roll-ups of the same poll. The field dates for the three-day roll-up are June 14-16, 2019. In total, a random sample of 1,229 Canadian adults aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/-2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The field dates for the six-day roll-up are June 12-17, 2019. In total, a random sample of 2,491 Canadian adults aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 2.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

1 COMMENT

  1. Canada can not afford to have the reform party in the PM office, again. Harper was a terrible PM. He closed down veteran affairs offices and left ones open that made it hard or impossible for a veteran to visit and see what his or her options are. He burned 100 years of Fishery and Oceans research. Astounding in its ignorance. It served no purpose that a thinking individual could understand. I think he wanted to hide the scientific data F&O had that proves climate change is real.
    The reform party has racists in its caucus. Kelly Leitch, Pierre Polivere are two prime, vocal examples. The reform base are racist and so ignorant that they think PM Trudeau is going to allow Shaira Law in Canada. You can’t discuss this with them. They saw the PM at a religious ceremony at a mosque, honouring the Muslims, he wore the kind of garments they do. Right away he’s called the derogatory names these people call Muslims. The reform party, under Harper allowed the weird faith based groups into Canada. They deny climate change, allowing women to control their bodies and not a panel of old, half dead white men telling them what they are “allowed” to do with their body. Harper gave credence to the ridiculous evangelical movement. If the reformers can’t see that religion and politics don’t mix they are too ignorant for words. Look to the US, which Harper always did, and see how well combining religion and politics works. Harper was the only PM who slapped his hand over his heart to sing O Canada. Such an American way. We don’t need it here. It’s based in hypocrisy also. A great number of Americans love their countryy, the soil, but not their fellow citizens. We are becoming the same way as there are too many reformers around. Read their ignorance on FB.
    Harper and Preston Manning collaborated on a policy paper on how to change Canada. To Harpers view. He spent 13 years on that paper and Manning distanced himself as it got too extreme for him. I figure Harper is pretty slow if a paper takes 13 years! Then he went out and formed the made in Alberta Canadian Reform Alliance Party. CRAP for short! 🤦‍♀️
    When they discovered the acronym was CRAP that’s when Peter, crying in the potato patch, McKay stole the name Conservative from the Tories of old. They added the word ‘progressive to it. Regressive might be more apt. There is very little progressive in that party. Harper left the largest deficit in our history. Or he and lyin’ Brian were close in the mess they made. Harper’s an economist? I think he missed quite a few classes! Too busy wanting to change Canada into his vision. Isn’t that treason, or Tin pot dictator moves? The gall that man thinks the majority of us want his whacky version of Canada. If there isn’t a law to cover a newbie dictator, then there should be. Look at Ford in Ontario. He is destroying that province for Ontarians except the wealthy, corporations and his friends. Have you seen the FB page called Ford Nation? A Harper move. These “people” must be breaking some law.
    I think it’s hate crimes. So prosecute them. Please. Shut them down. Ban the reformers from political party status. They foul the corridors of the HofC. These types of hate filled groups are spreading around the world. The rest of the world needs to kick them out of office. Look at the hate the reformers and those like them have started and these groups aren’t hiding under white hoods. They are marching the streets chanting hate speech. Arrest them. They don’t have the right to offend the majority.

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