NDP leads over BC Liberals: Mainstream Research

BC Liberal leadership race headed for multiple ballots
John Horgan
Photo by Jay Sharma of Mahi Photo Studio

 

PREMIER John Horgan enjoys a comfortable lead over the BC Liberals and Greens, a new Mainstreet Research report finds.

The poll was part of Mainstreet Research’s UltraPoll and surveyed 817 residents of British Columbia aged 18 and over between January 3 and 4. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.24% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
“The Horgan government are in a strong position starting the new year,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “Last year’s election saw the NDP and the BC Liberals in a dead heat in terms of the popular vote, but at the beginning of 2018, the NDP have opened up nearly a 5% lead over the opposition Liberals.”
The new NDP government has 38.5% support, while the opposition BC Liberals enjoys nearly 34% support. The Green Party, who have a confidence and supply agreement with the governing NDP, have 27.6% support.
The NDP lead is most significant among women with a nine-point lead, young voters under 35 (11 points) and in Greater Vancouver (15 points). Nonetheless, the NDP have continued weakness in the interior where they sit in third place.
“The Green Party led by Andrew Weaver continues to enjoy increased support and have the support of almost three in 10 British Columbia voters,” said Maggi. “These gains come largely from increases in the interior where they have replaced the NDP as the alternative to the BC Liberals.
“The BC Liberals of course have other things on their mind, namely selecting a new leader to replace past leader and Premier Christy Clark.”

IN a separate survey, former MP Dianne Watts leads the BC Liberal leadership race among decided voters with nearly 30%, with Andrew Wilkinson at 21.3% and Todd Stone at nearly 20%.
“The BC Liberal race appears to be one that will be hard to call, with many strong candidates in the field,” said Maggi. “While we do not have a complete membership list, we think that this leadership race will see a multi-ballot scenario determining the winner.”
The BC Liberal leadership survey used past federal and provincial donors as a frame and screened for membership of the BC Liberal Party. Based on the estimated BC Liberal membership totals, the margin of error for the leadership poll is +/- 5.3% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

1 COMMENT

  1. The narrative here is … just plain weird.

    “The BC Liberals of course have other things on their mind, namely selecting a new leader to replace past leader and Premier Christy Clark.” Maggi
    Other things in mind than performing well in a public opinion poll over which they have no control? Like, they’d be more popular now if they weren’t leader-selecting? goofy

    “The Green Party, who have a confidence and supply agreement with the governing NDP, have 27.6% support.”
    Why is that pertinent in that content? Implying that the the agreement somehow impacts their popular vote?

    “…at the beginning of 2018, the NDP have opened up nearly a 5% lead over the opposition Liberals.”
    RECAP – 2017 election: NDP 40%, Liberals 40%, Greens 17%.
    NDP haven’t “opened up” a lead, they haven’t even stood pat. All that’s happened is that the Liberals have fallen back even further, and the Greens have surged ahead (assuming of course the poll is accurate).
    THAT is the takeaway story here.

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